The office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares the sub-national population projections every two years for all local authorities in England. The 2018 based sub-national population projections were published on the 24 March 2020. They project forward the mid-2018 population estimates to give an indication of future trends in population by age for the next 25 years, from 2018 to 2043.
These trend-based projections are influenced by past trends in births, deaths and migration, and not by any future developments or policy decisions. They project how the population will change if recent trends continue. The projections are used in many areas of demographic research, including understanding changes in life expectancy and the preparation of the sub-national household projections.
- Projected population growth of 9% in the short-term to 2028 and projected growth of 19% in the long-term to 2043. By 2043, Shropshire’s population is projected to reach 381,500, from 320,300 in 2018.
- England and the West Midlands regional population are projected to grow at a significantly lower rate than Shropshire, both in the short-term and long-term.
- Shropshire’s male population is projected to grow by 18%, at a slightly lower level of growth than for females, at 20%.
- The average age in Shropshire is projected to change from 43 years in 2018 to 47 years in 2043. In comparison, nationally the average age will grow from 39 years to 42 years and regionally from 39 years to 41 years.
- The older population (65 years and over) in Shropshire is projected to grow by 63%, from 77,800 in 2018 to 126,500 by 2043. By 2043, this population group will represent a third of Shropshire’s population.
- The younger age groups in Shropshire (0-4 years and 5-15 years) are projected to increase by 4% and 10%, respectively, by 2043. By 2043, the early year’s population will represent only 4% of Shropshire’s total population and the school age population only 10%.
- Shropshire’s population growth is entirely fed by net in-migration from within the UK and overseas. Natural change alone (slight decline in births minus rising deaths) is projected to have an increasingly negative impact on population change in Shropshire.
- Changes to the ONS methodology to estimate migration data has resulted in Shropshire’s Population Projections (2018 SNPP) being considerably higher than the 2016 SNPP. As a result, some caution should be applied when interpreting the 2018 SNPP.
Further information on the 2018 based sub-national population projections is available here.